Ranking Handball Teams from Statistical Strength Estimation
Abstract
In this work, we present a methodology to estimate the strength of handball teams using a statistical method. We propose the use of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution to model the number of goals scored by a team as a flexible discrete distribution which can handle situations of non equi-dispersion. From its parameters, we derive a mathematical formula to determine the strength of a team. We propose a ranking based on the estimated strengths to compare teams across different championships. Applied to female handball club data from European competitions over the season 2022/2023, we show that our new ranking can have an echo in real sports events and the results.
- Publication:
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arXiv e-prints
- Pub Date:
- July 2023
- DOI:
- 10.48550/arXiv.2307.06754
- arXiv:
- arXiv:2307.06754
- Bibcode:
- 2023arXiv230706754F
- Keywords:
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- Statistics - Applications;
- Statistics - Methodology