A comparative study of compartmental models for COVID-19 transmission in Ontario, Canada

The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reached over 1.3 million in Ontario, Canada by June 4, 2022. The continued spread of the virus underlying COVID-19 has been spurred by the emergence of variants since the initial outbreak in December, 2019. Much attention has thus been devoted to tracking and modelling the transmission of COVID-19. Compartmental models are commonly used to mimic epidemic transmission mechanisms and are easy to understand. Their performance in real-world settings, however, needs to be more thoroughly assessed. In this comparative study, we examine five compartmental models—four existing ones and an extended model that we propose—and analyze their ability to describe COVID-19 transmission in Ontario from January 2022 to June 2022.