Hubble tensions: a historical statistical analysis
Abstract
Statistical analyses of measurements of the HubbleLemaître constant H_{0} (163 measurements between 1976 and 2019) show that the statistical error bars associated with the observed parameter measurements have been underestimated  or the systematic errors were not properly taken into account  in at least 1520 per cent of the measurements. The fact that the underestimation of error bars for H_{0} is so common might explain the apparent discrepancy of values, which is formally known as the Hubble tension. Here we have carried out a recalibration of the probabilities with this sample of measurements. We find that thexσ deviation is indeed equivalent in a normal distribution to the x_{eq}σ deviation in the frequency of values, where x_{eq} = 0.83x^{0.62}. Hence, a tension of 4.4σ, estimated between the local Cepheidsupernova distance ladder and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, is indeed a 2.1σ tension in equivalent terms of a normal distribution of frequencies, with an associated probability P(>x_{eq}) = 0.036 (1 in 28). This can be increased up to a equivalent tension of 2.5σ in the worst of the cases of claimed 6σ tension, which may occur anyway as a random statistical fluctuation.
 Publication:

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
 Pub Date:
 December 2022
 DOI:
 10.1093/mnras/stac2567
 arXiv:
 arXiv:2210.07078
 Bibcode:
 2022MNRAS.517.5805L
 Keywords:

 cosmological parameters;
 cosmology: observations;
 distance scale;
 Astrophysics  Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics;
 Physics  History and Philosophy of Physics
 EPrint:
 accepted to be published in MNRAS