Magnetopause Standoff Position Changes and Geosynchronous Orbit Crossings: Models and Observations
Abstract
This research examines the ability of current physics-based models to predict the magnetopause standoff location. We use the Run-On-Request capabilities at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA GSFC with 4 magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models. The magnetopause standoff position prediction and response time to the solar wind changes is then compared to results from one of the available empirical models (e.g., (Chao et al., 2002)), and to extreme solar wind conditions where magnetopause crossing of geosynchronous orbit have been observed by the GOES satellites. Rigorous analysis/comparison of observations and empirical models is critical in determining magnetosphere dynamics for model validation. This paper is a preliminary effort defining the metrics necessary to understand the current magnetosphere model capabilities and challenges. Results show that there are discrepancies between the MHD models standoff positions of the dayside magnetopause for the same solar wind conditions on events that included 1) an increase in solar wind dynamic pressure and a step function in the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz component; 2) nominal solar wind conditions with a northward IMF; and 3) compression caused by several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) impacting the near Earth environment. Overall, the models predicted different magnetopause subsolar locations, and correlation coefficients between the MHD models and the empirical model were low. Also, the empirical model seems to predict the magnetopause always farther inward than the MHD models. Finally, contingency tables were calculated to show model performance in comparison with the data observed with the GOES 13/15 geosynchronous orbit for extreme events.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFMSM33A..04C