An MHD modelling approach to understand and predict the geomagnetic consequences of coronal mass ejections

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) inject a large quantity of magnetized plasma into the heliosphere. When CMEs are Earth-directed, they create adverse space weather conditions. We at CESSI have developed a 3D magnetohydrodynamic model based on the PLUTO architecture to simulate the interaction of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) with the Earth's magnetosphere. In this study, we discuss our simulation to assess the impact of CME flux ropes on the Earth's magnetosphere and present a methodology to estimate its geo-effectiveness. We validate this model and find a good match with the observed values of Dst and SYM-H index for past events. Our model therefore, opens up the possibility of predicting the severity of geomagnetic storm based on early, data-driven inputs of ICME flux rope profiles gleaned from near-Sun or in-situ observations.