Climate and Water Risk to the Bulk Power System: Asset to Grid Impacts

Energy system stakeholders need a standardized mechanism for evaluating how future climate and hydrologic conditions translate to impacts on power grid assets and systems to support planning decisions. Yet, no such mechanism exists. To address this need, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), City university of New York (CUNY), and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) have partnered to assess climate and water risk to the United States (U.S.) bulk power system. The research team's goals are to: (1) Develop and execute a state-of-the-art multi-model framework to assess future climate-water impacts and risks to the grid, including sensitivities to varying hydrologic drivers and infrastructure scenarios, and (2) Create a standardized interactive analysis and visualization platform to support industry (Independent system operators, regional transmission operators, utilities), the Department of Energy, and academia. In this presentation, we will introduce the project and describe the modeling framework, which includes coupled hydrologic and power system models that address capacity expansion, production cost, risk, and reliability assessments. The unique features of the model framework enable high-resolution analyses of both climate impacts and adaptation measures, and we will showcase preliminary results and evaluations of how future climate and hydrologic conditions translate to risks for power grid assets and systems.