Questioning the use of global estimates of reproduction numbers, with implications for policy
Abstract
The basic reproduction number, $R_0$ is an important and widely used concept in the study of infectious diseases. We briefly review the recent trend of calculating the average of various $R_0$ estimates in systematic reviews aimed at estimating the basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2, and discuss the drawbacks and implications of using such averaging methods. Additionally, we argue that even a theoretically grounded approach such as next generation matrix could have practical impediments in its use. More generally, the practice of associating an infectious disease with a single value of $R_0$ is problematic, when the disease can, in fact have different reproduction numbers in various populations.
- Publication:
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arXiv e-prints
- Pub Date:
- December 2021
- DOI:
- 10.48550/arXiv.2112.05437
- arXiv:
- arXiv:2112.05437
- Bibcode:
- 2021arXiv211205437K
- Keywords:
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- Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution
- E-Print:
- 5 pages, 3 figures