Semiparametric Estimation of Long-Term Treatment Effects
Abstract
Long-term outcomes of experimental evaluations are necessarily observed after long delays. We develop semiparametric methods for combining the short-term outcomes of experiments with observational measurements of short-term and long-term outcomes, in order to estimate long-term treatment effects. We characterize semiparametric efficiency bounds for various instances of this problem. These calculations facilitate the construction of several estimators. We analyze the finite-sample performance of these estimators with a simulation calibrated to data from an evaluation of the long-term effects of a poverty alleviation program.
- Publication:
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arXiv e-prints
- Pub Date:
- July 2021
- DOI:
- 10.48550/arXiv.2107.14405
- arXiv:
- arXiv:2107.14405
- Bibcode:
- 2021arXiv210714405C
- Keywords:
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- Economics - Econometrics;
- Mathematics - Statistics Theory