Strategic site selection of wind and solar power plants in deep decarbonization scenarios for electricity systems

Wind and solar photovoltaic are projected to play important roles in achieving a net-zero-carbon electricity system that meets current and future energy needs. Here, we show potential advantages of long-term site planning of wind and solar power plants in deep decarbonization scenarios for electricity systems. We use a macro-scale energy model to find the capacities and dispatches that minimize the cost of an electricity system comprised of distributed wind and solar generation, energy storage, and natural gas generation. We find the least-cost system for several scenarios with increasingly strict carbon emissions limits. If there are substantial amounts of sources of flexibility on the grid (e.g., dispatchable power, flexible demand), then capacity factor is a dominant siting consideration for wind and solar. With weak carbon emission constraints, relatively high value is placed on sites with high capacity factors because the added wind or solar capacity can efficiently substitute for natural gas. With strict carbon emission constraints, relatively high value is placed on sites with high correlation with residual demand because resource complementarity can efficiently compensate for a lower system flexibility. Our results suggest that decisions regarding long-term wind and solar farm siting may benefit from consideration of the spatial and temporal evolution of mismatches in electricity demand and generation capacity.