Quantifying non-CO2 contributions to remaining carbon budgets

The IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C concluded that the maximum level of anthropogenic global warming is "determined by cumulative net global anthropogenic CO2 emissions up to the time of net zero CO2 emissions and the level of non-CO2 radiative forcing" in the decades prior to the time of peak warming. Here we quantify this statement, using CO2-forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions to calculate remaining carbon budgets without treating available mitigation scenarios as a representative sample of possible futures.CO2-fe emissions are used to calculate an observationally-constrained estimate of the Transient Climate Response to cumulative Emissions (TCRE) using a large ensemble of historical radaitve forcing timeseries. This observationally-constrained TCRE is used to calculate remaining total CO2-fe budgets from 2018 to 1.5°C, which we compare with results discussed in Chapter 2, SR15. We consider contributions to this total remaining budget from CO2 and non-CO2 sources using both historical observations and the available mitigation scenarios in the IAMC scenario database.We calculate remaining CO2 budgets for a 33, 50 or 66% chance of limiting peak warming to 1.5°C and use these to assess the extent to which scenarios in the IAMC scenario database are consistent with ambitious mitigation as outlined in the Paris Agreement. We argue that, assuming no change in the definition of observed global warming and no increase in TCRE due to non-linear feedbacks, scenarios currently classified as "lower 2°C-compatible" are consistent with a best-estimate peak warming of 1.5°C.