The overlap of aftershock coda waves and forecasting the first hour aftershocks
Abstract
We show that short term post-seismic incompleteness can be interpreted in terms of the overlap of aftershock coda waves. We use this information to develop a novel procedure which gives accurate occurrence probabilities of post-seismic strong ground shaking within 30 minutes after the mainshock. This novel approach uses, as only information, the ground velocity recorded at a single station without requiring that signals are transferred and elaborated by operational units. We will also discuss how this information can be implemented in the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model in order to reproduce statistical features in time and magnitude of recorded aftershocks.Main references de Arcangelis L., Godano C. & Lippiello E. (2018) The Overlap of Aftershock Coda Waves and Short-Term Postseismic Forecasting. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 123: 5661-5674,doi:10.1029/2018JB015518Lippiello E., Petrillo G., Godano G., Tramelli A., Papadimitriou E. &, Karakostas V. (2019) Forecasting of the first hour aftershocks by means of the perceived magnitude. Nature Communications, 10, 2953, doi:10.1038/s41467-019-10763-3
- Publication:
-
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- May 2020
- DOI:
- 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2444
- Bibcode:
- 2020EGUGA..22.2444L