Development and Evaluation of space weather forecast models in NICT

National Institute of Information and Communication Technology (NICT), Japan is endorsed organization to provide space weather information operationally in Japan. In addition, we have a function of space weather research, and developing numerical/empirical models for improving space weather forecast precision.

"DeepFlareNet" is a empirical model using AI for predicting flare occurrence with its scale in the following 24 hours. This model automatically detects active regions with strong magnetic field and identify for each prediction. (https://defn.nict.go.jp/index_eng.html)

"SUSANOO" (Space-weather-forecast-Usable System Anchored by Numerical Operations and Observations) is a three-dimensional MHD simulation of propagation of solar wind and coronal mass ejections in the inner heliosphere (r < 2AU) based on photospheric magnetic field observations. The modeled time profile of solar wind at the Earth's position is utilized for a prediction of high energy. (http://cidas.isee.nagoya-u.ac.jp/susanoo/)

GAIA (Ground-to-Topside Model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy) is a whole atmosphere GCM which solves physical and chemical processes from the ground to upper atmosphere under interaction with the ionosphere. (http://seg-web.nict.go.jp/GAIA/index_e.html)

Equatorial plasma bubbles are known to cause severe degradation of satellite-based communication and navigation. This model can reproduce nonlinear growth of equatorial plasma bubbles by solving the electrodynamics of equatorial ionosphere with very high spatial resolution (<1km). It is expected to reveal generation mechanisms and to estimate effects on radio wave propagation quantitatively.

"HF-START" (HF Simulator Targeting for All-users' Regional Telecommunications) is the HF propagation simulator that is developed to meet the needs of space weather users for, but not limit to, telecommunications. It is a user-friendly model.

We will present some results of evaluation in each model in the presentation.