Nature-Based Solutions: a future proof investment under a changing climate?

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are considered a crucial build­ing block for adaptive strategies for climate resilience and water security; as healthy ecosystems could work as buffers that protect us again extreme events. Despite their potential and expected resilience dividend, implementation of NBS at scale remains a challenge. Reasons that slow down the rate of adoption of green and hybrid strategies for water secu­rity are between others: uncertain performance, higher (real and perceived) risk-profile, the importance of local specific conditions that complicate scalability and replicability, and a relatively higher need to establish strong alignment between various stakeholders and institutions to ensure their success­ful implementation. Additionally, if NBS are seen through the lens of deep uncertainty the complex relationship between NBS and changes in climate and biodiversity (which affect the productivity function of ecosystems) raise an additional concern of whether there are limits to their adaptability to changing conditions.

If we are to rely on NBS for risk mitigation against uncertain futures, we need to consider that Ecosystems themselves are also vulnerable to a range of climate impacts. We present the results of a scoping study to better understand the climate resilience dividends of NBS under deep uncertainty which con­tributes also to the further development of the Financing Framework for Water Security whose goal is to close the implementation gap of hybrid (green-gray) water security strategies. The research is supported by both Deltares Adaptive Planning Research Pro­gram and the European Commission through the H2020 project NAture Insurance value: Assessment and Demonstration (NA­IAD). The Ecosystems analyzed between others through a collaborative modeling workshop are: wetlands, mangroves and riverside poplar-willow forests.