Utilizing Stable Isotopes of Water to Investigate Climate Change in North-Central Ukraine

Kyiv, home to approximately 2.9 million people and the capital of Ukraine, is situated in the north-central region of the country. The population of this region relies on a supply of water that is vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation; over the past two decades, the effects of climate change have already become evident. For instance, the incidences of widespread drought in Ukraine have nearly doubled in the past two decades and, in 2019, the increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation (25% less than average) meant that a meteorological winter did not occur for the first time in 140 years. With a population that relies strongly on agriculture and a vulnerable water supply, understanding the sources and paths of precipitation in this region will be critical for future water management.

This project is the first stable isotope study for northern/central Ukraine and establishes an initial meteoric water line for the region. In Kyiv, precipitation is collected from each storm event, while river and groundwater samples have been collected monthly since December 2019. In Cherkasy, precipitation and river samples have been collected monthly since January 2020. The precipitation samples represent composite values. Event and monthly sampling will continue at least through the remainder of 2020. These data will allow observation of temporal shifts in the source of precipitation delivered to north-central Ukraine. We expect that these temporal changes will allow prediction of where precipitation is originating during certain times of the year and how climate change may affect these patterns. From this, we can begin to characterize and track climate change and compare with effects observed in Kharkov (northeastern Ukraine) and Sevastopol (southwestern Crimea) from published studies. Additionally, comparison to regional records will illustrate if the lack of a meteorological winter can be identified in stable isotope records. Overall, these data will provide a framework for future studies regarding surface water - groundwater interaction, recharge, and evaporation processes, characterizing the impacts of climate change on this region.