Institutional adaptive capacity to floods: Bridging the gaps between observed and perceived flooding risks and climate change actions in North American cities
Abstract
Floods have contributed to significant economic losses in North American cities. Climate change has aggravated the impacts of flooding, particularly in cities with a lack of institutional adaptive capacity. As risk perceptions affect behaviors in taking actions, we ask to what degree do organizations involved in different levels of urban governance perceive flood risks differently from observed risks? This study examines eight cities in the Urban Resilience to Extremes Sustainable Research Network (UREx SRN): Atlanta, Baltimore, Phoenix, Portland, Miami, New York, Syracuse, and San Juan. Perceived risks were extracted from an extensive stakeholder survey conducted between 2017 to 2020 across the UREx SRN cities related to 1) concerns on flooding hazards, 2) sources of knowledge to assess risks, 3) priorities for evaluating uncertainty and planning for climate change, and 4) capacity to recognize uncertainty and utilize adaptive planning processes and decision-making mechanisms. The SHELDUS hazard dataset (2006-2018) was analyzed for the recorded numbers of flood hazards and associated economic losses. The primary study results suggest that cities exposed to hazards, or that experienced hazard-related economic losses, would perceive higher flooding risks and have more advanced knowledge systems and governance capacity. San Juan has higher risk perceptions yet ranked lower in adaptive capacity to climate change. Phoenix has higher observed flooding risks, yet lower perceived risks due to the other hazards such as heat that is experienced much more frequently than severe storm events. In contrast, Portland stakeholders have higher risk perceptions even though the city has not experienced much flooding in recent years. This study demonstrates the complexity of coupled human-natural systems by recognizing the gaps between the observed and perceived risks and by understanding priorities and limitations existing in the governance of resilience to address climate change uncertainty, adaptive management, and coping capacity.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2020
- Bibcode:
- 2020AGUFMH143.0004C
- Keywords:
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- 1807 Climate impacts;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1817 Extreme events;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1834 Human impacts;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1873 Uncertainty assessment;
- HYDROLOGY