Generalizing Budyko: Structured asynchrony or heterogeneity between supply and demand explains supply deficits in hydrological, biological, and human systems
Abstract
We propose a single framework to unify analyses of input-output inefficiencies across disparate disciplines. Input-output models are used in multiple disciplines to evaluate primary system drivers and responses, but also to examine and understand inefficiencies. The Budyko framework is an example of such a model from catchment hydrology. In efficient systems, resource usage is based on the law of the minimum, where usage is equal to the minimum of supply or usage capacity. Usage capacity and supply commonly may be determined independently from first principles, for example conservation of mass and energy. The Budyko framework is an example formalization of these principles. However, observed inefficiencies in real systems (natural or anthropogenic) tend to be larger than expected based on analyses determined from mean values of the first-principle drivers. We hypothesize that the failures of these first-principle models result from incomplete characterization of the driver distributions. Models based on spatial or temporal mean values may overlook structured patterns (e.g., correlations) that play a further determining role in the observed behavior. We demonstrate a unified analytical model framework that considers both structured temporal asynchrony and spatial heterogeneity between supply and demand. We provide conceptual examples coupled with empirical data from ecology, economics, hydrology, and transportation.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2020
- Bibcode:
- 2020AGUFMH139.0008J
- Keywords:
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- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1803 Anthropogenic effects;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1880 Water management;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 4303 Hydrological;
- NATURAL HAZARDS