Compound Coastal Hazards Risk Modeling and Communication is Challenging!
Abstract
People and assets around the globe are increasingly threatened by compound coastal hazards. Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are typical examples, during which the coincidence/concurrence of two or more hazard drivers (i.e. strong wind, intense rainfall and elevated sea level) produce risky situations. The compounding effects of these hazard drivers in many cases result in damage way beyond the impacts expected from each driver in isolation. Thus, complex interactions between atmospheric, oceanic, and hydroclimatic forcings play a major role in hazard prediction and infrastructure resilience in coastal regions. However, effective communication of these events to the vulnerable communities is not a straightforward task. Selecting appropriate framework that helps accurately model these interactions and select appropriate set of forcings to drive these models are quite complicated processes. Another significant challenge is how to appropriately characterize the risk associated with these compound events? Incorrect representation of risk associated with these events that focus on one driver at a time is not suited for such multi-hazard situations and so unable to provide reliable and actionable information to decision-makers. Also, poor depiction of risk results in miss-communication and possibly miss-allocation of resources. In this presentation, the challenges we face for appropriate characterization of compound and correlated coastal extremes and the opportunities to tackle the aforementioned challenges will be discussed.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2020
- Bibcode:
- 2020AGUFMGC096..05M
- Keywords:
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- 1620 Climate dynamics;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 4306 Multihazards;
- NATURAL HAZARDS;
- 4313 Extreme events;
- NATURAL HAZARDS