Should India move towards vehicle electrification? Assessing life-cycle greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emissions of alternative and conventional fuel vehicles in India.

India is the third largest contributor of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the world after US and China. The transportation sector currently constitutes 18% of total India GHG emissions. Electrifying the current fleet and future transportation could hold the potential to reduce emissions and its associated damages. In this work, we provide a holistic cradle to grave life cycle approach to estimate GHG and criteria air pollutant (CAP) emissions for representative passenger vehicles including four-wheelers, three-wheelers, two-wheelers and buses driven in Indian states/union territories (UTs). We use publicly available Government of India data and review previously conducted life cycle assessment (LCA) studies for various life cycle stages to present the first state-specific LCA study associated with internal combustion engine vehicles, battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Subsequently, we draw policy implications for large-scale electric vehicle implementation in these states/UTs based on the grid mix in the different regions of the country. Our results show that besides the states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Goa and Jharkhand which have higher use phase emissions, climate change damages associated with BEVs are lowest compared to all other conventional and alternative vehicles. Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions decline whereas particulate matter (PM) and sulphur dioxide (SO₂) emissions increase for PHEVs and BEVs compared to other vehicles. Nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions remain largely similar for conventional and alternative vehicles. However, air pollution damages associated with PHEVs for 27 of the 32 states/UTs are lower compared to BEVs because of the increase in fossil fuel use in power plants for charging the vehicles. This indicates that India needs to move to a grid powered by low criteria air pollutant electricity generating sources so as to address both climate change and air pollution issues.