An integrated multi-objective appraisal of mitigation and climate engineering under uncertainty
Abstract
The ultimate objective of the Paris Agreement is as desirable as challenging to attain. Preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference of the climate system requires profound and immediate changes in our economy and energy system. Yet, global CO2 emissions were still increasing in 2019, and strategies that rely only on reducing future emissions might fall short of accomplishing the most ambitious of the proposed targets. One way to aid future mitigation and carbon sequestration efforts in reducing temperatures is by means of Solar Radiation Management (SRM). By injecting large quantities of aerosols in the stratosphere, it is possible to increase the reflectivity of the Earth, hence dampening part of the greenhouse effect. Although promising and potentially cheap, the physical, technological and economic feasibility of large-scale SRM is surrounded by deep uncertainties, as well as conflicting economic and environmental considerations.
In this paper we provide a multi-objective integrated assessment of policy portfolios that include mitigation, carbon sequestration and solar engineering decisions. We evaluate strategies and scenarios by extending the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) Integrated Assessment Model, coupled with a land-ocean energy balance model. We frame the search for desirable strategies as an optimization problem with multiple objectives, related to temperature, CO2 concentrations, economic damages from climate change and deployable amount of carbon and solar geo-engineering. We identify solutions that are Pareto-optimal using a state-of-the-art evolutionary optimization algorithm, and analyze the emerging synergies and trade-offs among objectives. Finally, we evaluate the most promising strategies against ensembles of alternative plausible futures. As a result, we identify the solutions that are most robust to deeply uncertain assumptions like the economic impacts of climate change and the effectiveness of climate engineering.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2020
- Bibcode:
- 2020AGUFMGC048..04M
- Keywords:
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- 1605 Abrupt/rapid climate change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1622 Earth system modeling;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 4329 Sustainable development;
- NATURAL HAZARDS