Implications of future climate for management of migratory waterfowl habitat

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is recognized as one of the most productive areas for waterfowl in North America and supports an estimated 50-80 % of the continent's duck population. The southeast portion of the US PPR in Minnesota and Iowa has faced some of the greatest challenges in wetland conservation. While advances have been made to restore these habitats, land managers now face new challenges in the form of climate change and continued land-use change pressures. The goal of this research is to provide wetland managers with an assessment of wetland trends and forecasts to better plan and target conservation actions. We used a mechanistic model to simulate water levels of 22 wetland basins using historical meteorological inputs and forecast climate and upland land-use change impacts of wetland ecosystem functioning. We also developed cross-validation methods from delineated aerial imagery to model wetland hydrology in areas with no long-term monitoring. We applied these techniques to wetlands managed by state and federal agencies in Minnesota and Iowa. By combining long-term monitoring and mechanistic modeling with the most up-to-date climate and land-use change projections, we produced a reproducible workflow for assessing site-specific and regional changes in the hydrological functioning of critical waterfowl habitat. To ensure the most effective application of these results we brought together wetland managers from both state and federal agencies and incorporated manager feedback throughout the research process.