Development Seasonal Fire Forest Forecast over Sumatera Island based on The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) from ECMWF SEAS5
Abstract
Although some research shows that forest fires can be caused by human activities, but the relationship between a huge number of forest fires over Sumatera and drought conditions is observable. The severe drought conditions over Sumatera Island due to El Nino impact coincides with the largest number of forest fires. In this study, we analyze the relationship between a drought index SPI 3-monthly which generated from the ECMWF SEAS5 forecast and the number of forest fires. Based on this relationship, we built the seasonal forest fire prediction up to the next 7 months with SPI as an independent variable. The result shows that the increasing drought area will impact an increasing number of a forest fire, however, in case there is no drought area (SPI > 0), the forest fire still happened in this small event. The human activity might be the trigger for these small-scale forest fires. Forest fires mostly occur in the eastern part of the Sumatra Island and have a peak in September. Because Sumatra Island is a monsoonal island when the drought more than 6 months such as impact of El Nino, the SPI graph will divide in two-part. Generally, seasonal prediction forest fire based on ECMWF SEA5 good performance and operationally it can be run sustainably for community service
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2020
- Bibcode:
- 2020AGUFMA143.0009A
- Keywords:
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- 3307 Boundary layer processes;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3322 Land/atmosphere interactions;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3379 Turbulence;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3390 Wildland fire model;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES