Assessing the recent impact of COVID-19 on carbon emissions from China using domestic economic data
Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has significantly reduced gross domestic product (GDP), power consumption, industry activity and transport flow, and thus decreased the fossil-related CO2 emissions in China. Due to time delays in obtaining energy activity data, traditional inventories generally lag real time by 2-3 years. However, a timely assessment of impact from COVID-19 on provincial CO2 emission reductions is crucial for both understanding the reduction and its implications for mitigation. Here, we used national and provincial GDP, traffic statistic data and the CEADs inventory to estimate the reductions in the first quarter (Q1) of 2020. We show that over 2019 Q1, a reduction of -11.0% was found in 2020 Q1 (with secondary industry contributed 72.5%), due largely to lower coal consumptions and cement production reductions. At the provincial level, Hubei contributed the most to reductions. Furthermore, we also used a point, line and area sources method to validate the GDP in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which produced a close estimate of -10.6% reductions. By simply extrapolating the current rate to July and December, the reduction could range from -4.8% ~ -9.1% for the full year. Moreover, GDP is found to have potential merit for estimating emissions changes when detailed energy activity data are unavailable. One implication for mitigation is changing people's working style and recommending working from home, and holding virtual conferences to reduce emissions.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2020
- Bibcode:
- 2020AGUFMA067.0001H
- Keywords:
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- 0305 Aerosols and particles;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE;
- 0345 Pollution: urban and regional;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE;
- 0365 Troposphere: composition and chemistry;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE;
- 0240 Public health;
- GEOHEALTH