Selection of quasi-stationary states in the Navier-Stokes equation on the torus

The two dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes equation on [ image ][ image ] with [ image ], periodic boundary conditions, and viscosity [ image ] is considered. Bars and dipoles, two explicitly given quasi-stationary states of the system, evolve on the time scale [ image ] and have been shown to play a key role in its long-time evolution. Of particular interest is the role that δ plays in selecting which of these two states is observed. Recent numerical studies suggest that, after a transient period of rapid decay of the high Fourier modes, the bar state will be selected if [ image ], while the dipole will be selected if [ image ]. Our results support this claim and seek to mathematically formalize it. We consider the system in Fourier space, project it onto a center manifold consisting of the lowest eight Fourier modes, and use this as a model to study the selection of bars and dipoles. It is shown for this ODE model that the value of δ controls the behavior of the asymptotic ratio of the low modes, thus determining the likelihood of observing a bar state or dipole after an initial transient period. Moreover, in our model, for all [ image ], there is an initial time period in which the high modes decay at the rapid rate [ image ], while the low modes evolve at the slower [ image ] rate. The results for the ODE model are proven using energy estimates and invariant manifolds and further supported by formal asymptotic expansions and numerics.