Predictably missing satellites: subhalo abundances in Milky Way-like haloes

On small scales there have been a number of claims of discrepancies between the standard cold dark matter (CDM) model and observations. The `missing satellites problem' infamously describes the overabundance of subhaloes from CDM simulations compared to the number of satellites observed in the Milky Way. A variety of solutions to this discrepancy have been proposed; however, the impact of the specific properties of the Milky Way halo relative to the typical halo of its mass has yet to be explored. Motivated by recent studies that identified ways in which the Milky Way is atypical, we investigate how the properties of dark matter haloes with mass comparable to our Galaxy's - including concentration, spin, shape, and scale factor of the last major merger - correlate with the subhalo abundance. Using zoom-in simulations of Milky Way-like haloes, we build two models of subhalo abundance as functions of host halo properties. From these models we conclude that the Milky Way most likely has fewer subhaloes than the average halo of the same mass. We expect up to 30 per cent fewer subhaloes with low maximum rotation velocities (V_max^sat ∼ 10 km s^-1) at the 68 per cent confidence level and up to 52 per cent fewer than average subhaloes with high rotation velocities (V_max^sat ≳ 30 km s^-1, comparable to the Magellanic Clouds) than would be expected for a typical halo of the Milky Way's mass. Concentration is the most informative single parameter for predicting subhalo abundance. Our results imply that models tuned to explain the missing satellites problem assuming typical subhalo abundances for our Galaxy may be overcorrecting.