Is persistence useful for sub-seasonal prediction in Croatia?
Abstract
Reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and long time series of 2 m temperature observations are explored to assess the temporal persistence of temperature in coastal and inland regions of Croatia. The data reveal substantial variability on spatial scales that are not resolved by the reanalysis, but revealed by observations. In short, persistence has predictive skill, but only in certain regions (mainly coastal) and in certain seasons (mainly summer, but also mid-winter in inland regions). For mapping and prediction of sub-seasonal mean temperatures in the complex topography and surface of Croatia, the reanalysis alone has limited value, but time-series of observations are useful.
- Publication:
-
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- April 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019EGUGA..2117155R