Changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming: Why half a degree matters
Abstract
This presentation will provide an overview on changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming, based on chapter 3 of the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C global warming (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2019) as well as on several recent publications (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al. 2017; Seneviratne et al. 2018a,b). There are substantial differences in regional climate means and extremes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming, with up to 2-3 times larger increases in hot extremes over land compared to the global mean temperature. There are also detectable differences in heavy precipitation and droughts in some regions. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C avoids substantial risks compared to higher levels of warming, including irreversible impacts. However, it does not completely remove the risk of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies in the coming decades. References: Hoegh-Guldberg, O., D. Jacob, M. Taylor, M. Bindi, S. Brown, I. Camilloni, A. Diedhiou, R. Djalante, K. Ebi, F. Engelbrecht, J. Guiot, Y. Hijioka, S. Mehrotra, A. Payne, S. I. Seneviratne, A. Thomas, R. Warren, G. Zhou, 2019, Impacts of 1.5ºC global warming on natural and human systems. In: Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [V. Masson-Delmotte, et al. (eds.)]. In Press. Seneviratne, S.I., M. Donat, A.J. Pitman, R. Knutti, and R.L. Wilby, 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Seneviratne, S.I., J. Rogelj, R. Séférian, R. Wartenburger, M.R. Allen, M. Cain, R.J. Millar, K.L. Ebi, N. Ellis, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, A.J. Payne, C.-F. Schleussner, P. Tschakert, R.F. Warren, 2018a: The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement's aim of 1.5°C warming. Nature. 558, 41-49. Seneviratne, S.I., R. Wartenburger, B.P. Guillod, A.L. Hirsch, M.M. Vogel, V. Brovkin, D.P. van Vuuren, N. Schaller, L. Boysen, K.V. Calvin, J. Doelman, P. Greve, P. Havlik, F. Humpenöder, T. Krisztin, D. Mitchell, A. Popp, K. Riahi, J. Rogelj, C.-F. Schleussner, J. Sillmann, E. Stehfest, 2018b: Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 376. Wartenburger, H., H. Hirschi, M.G. Donat, P. Greve, A.J. Pitman, S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework. Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 3609-3634.
- Publication:
-
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- April 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019EGUGA..2112613S