Modulation of the Galactic Cosmic Radiation through Solar Cycle 25: Predictions in the Case of a Modern Secular Minimum Condition
Abstract
The persistent decline in the strength of solar cycles might indicate that we are at the beginning of a secular solar minimum. As a result,the fluxes of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) have increased to levels never reported previously in the space age. We use data from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) to investigate the space radiation environment. We show that GCR radiation is alimiting factor for safe human space exploration over long-term missions (e.g., to Mars). We examine the correlation between the heliospheric magnetic field, the global solar wind speed, and the modulation potential of the GCRs through solar cycle 24. We apply this correlation to past secular minima conditions, including the Dalton minimum (1790-1830) and the Gleissberg minimum (1890-1920) as possible scenarios for solar cycle 25.Furthermore, we investigate the effect of the local interstellar parameters used in Badhwar O'Neill 2014 model on modulation of GCRs and the resulting permissible mission durations throughout solar cycle 25.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMSH41D3342R
- Keywords:
-
- 2101 Coronal mass ejections;
- INTERPLANETARY PHYSICS;
- 2114 Energetic particles;
- INTERPLANETARY PHYSICS;
- 2784 Solar wind/magnetosphere interactions;
- MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICS;
- 7536 Solar activity cycle;
- SOLAR PHYSICS;
- ASTROPHYSICS;
- AND ASTRONOMY