Prediction of the sporadic E layer occurrence using the real-time GAIA
Abstract
The sporadic E (Es) layer has significant influences on radio communications and broadcast, and the prediction of occurrence of the Es layer is one of the most important issues in space weather forecast. Although the Es layer occurrence has clear seasonal variations, significant day-to-day variations as well as spatial variations are present. Because of the complex behavior of the Es layer, the prediction of Es layer is thought to be difficult. In order to study the possibility of numerical prediction of the Es layer occurrence, we analyzed the simulation data of the whole atmosphere-ionosphere coupled model GAIA, and compared various parameters in the data with foEs data obtained by ionosonde observations in Japan. We found that variations in the vertical ion convergence or in the downward ion drift velocity in 120 km-130 km altitudes agree fairly well with variations in foEs. This result suggests that the probability prediction of Es layer occurrence is possible using those parameters in GAIA. Our group has recently developed a real-time GAIA simulation system, which can predict atmosphere-ionosphere conditions for a few days ahead. We will report the prediction method and discuss initial experimental results of the Es layer occurrence prediction using GAIA.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMSA52A..02S
- Keywords:
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- 2427 Ionosphere/atmosphere interactions;
- IONOSPHERE;
- 2435 Ionospheric disturbances;
- IONOSPHERE;
- 2736 Magnetosphere/ionosphere interactions;
- MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICS;
- 2794 Instruments and techniques;
- MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICS