Sustainability potential in Urbanization of weather forecast, air-quality prediction and climate scenarios for Prague - project URBI PRAGENSI
Abstract
As the most of population is living in the cities and their ratio is increasing, we need proper description of urban processes to assess the impacts within the cities and the effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation options applied in cities in connection with climate change as well as the urban heat island itself. Thus, it is valid not only for e.g. extreme heat waves impact prediction, but in air-quality prediction and long term perspective in connection to climate change impacts as well. This provides the background for the project within Operational Program Prague - The Pole of Growth "Urbanization of weather forecast, air-quality and climate scenarios for Prague". Under the action towards the Smart Cities and within the framework for developing adequate climate services, supporting tools for decission making are necessary.
There are four goals in the project. First, urbanization of weather forecast, i.e. involving and testing the urban parameterization scheme in the weather prediction model, can provide localized weather prediction and especially under the heat wave condition it can well capture the temperature differences in the city center with respect to the remote areas, which can achieved in the city like Prague more than 5°C. There are Applications foreseen using such prediction for planning and decision making on e.g. public services for some specific groups of population in risks, preparation and planning of the emergency resources under such conditions etc. Further, air-quality forecast based on such urbanized weather condition forecast can benefit from better estimates of temperature for chemical reactions, mixing height for dispersion conditions etc. Specific mitigation options and their effectivness can be readily assessed before really applied when prediction of exceedances appears. Third, urbanized scenarios of climate change can provide better description of future conditions in the city for adaptation and mitigation options, moreover, urbanized regional climate model in very high resolution will be good tool for estimates of efficiency of potential adaptation or mitigation measures for UHI forseen by the city administration in strategic development plans. Last, but not least, microscale simulations using LES methods are supposed to be used for selected local hot-spots to solve them.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMPA43G1193H
- Keywords:
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- 0466 Modeling;
- BIOGEOSCIENCES;
- 0493 Urban systems;
- BIOGEOSCIENCES;
- 0230 Impacts of climate change: human health;
- GEOHEALTH;
- 1631 Land/atmosphere interactions;
- GLOBAL CHANGE