How can disaster forensics inform climate risk scenarios? A multi-method case study on flood risk and resilience in Peru
Abstract
The emerging field of disaster forensics aims at a step change in understanding the contributions of hazard, exposure and vulnerability to specific '(un)natural' disasters. In doing so, it has supported the shaping of risk management roles and responsibilities at local to national scales. We discuss opportunities for methodological integration with the quickly developing field of climate attribution science, which is concerned with the role of changes in climate-related hazards for motivating global to national action on greenhouse gas emission reduction and, at lesser degrees, also risk management. Synergistic alignment between these complementary research fields may be particularly useful around a projective risk-scenario approach for charting out the policy options space along near to mid-term timescales. A case study on Peruvian flood impacts and risk, amplified by climate change and El Niño, and strongly characterized by uncertainty and surprise, illustrates our suggestions and identifies lessons learnt for generating actionable risk information that supports efforts for building resilience at scale. Our analysis integrates post-event analysis using the PERC (post event review capability) protocol, field work on risk governance and insights from flood risk models to project future flood risk based on a number of scenarios grounded in today's realities. We show that in light of increasing risks in a changing climate efforts beyond 'business as usual' need to strongly focus on corrective reduction of current risks as well as on prospective actions for avoiding future risk creation. Overall, we suggest projective disaster forensics can make an important contribution through improved clarification and communication of risk responsibilities as well as informing national and international efforts for building resilience.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMPA33D1124M
- Keywords:
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- 4327 Resilience;
- NATURAL HAZARDS;
- 4328 Risk;
- NATURAL HAZARDS;
- 4333 Disaster risk analysis and assessment;
- NATURAL HAZARDS