Transdisciplinary Scenarios and Scenario-based Planning: Practical Approaches for Mitigation and Preparedness
Abstract
Building resilience to natural hazards is a difficult task that requires political will, individual choices to act, and financial, human and technical resources. Scenarios and scenario-based planning provide powerful tools for this process by identifying and addressing risk problems and resilience challenges posed by natural hazards. Building resilience requires not only sound science and engineering but a practical understanding of government, culture, social systems and human decision-making in order to effect change. For this reason, solid technical field observation, modeling, loss estimation, and solutioning are essential, but sound policy development strategies, informed by understanding of how people act, are just as necessary to change practices.
Transdisciplinarity— bringing together practitioners, researchers and stakeholders to tackle difficult problems— provides approaches to convene the right people to address tough problems in locally acceptable ways. This is vital in low- and middle-income countries, where resource constraints make sustainable solutions more challenging. Our three recent earthquake and landslide scenario and scenario-based action planning efforts in Asia provide practical examples. Action-oriented scenario projects in Weinan, Shaanxi Province, China; Aizawl, Mizoram, India; and Bajhang, Dadeldhura and Rukum (West) Districts, Nepal are intended to create mitigation and preparedness. Across these projects, we brought together earth and social scientists, engineers, planners, and disaster managers, both local and international. Transdisciplinary approaches included identifying major risk problems by making joint field visits, conducting interviews, consulting local agencies, developing technical recommendations using charrette processes from planning; and incorporating stakeholder feedback. People-focused narratives communicated technical results to officials and the public by imagining earthquake impacts in the form of short stories, graphic novels, and situation reports. Participatory action planning provided the main process to translate results to actions now being implemented in India and initiated in Nepal and China. Scenarios provided an essential tool to move officials from limited risk understanding to taking action.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMPA32B..04R
- Keywords:
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- 4306 Multihazards;
- NATURAL HAZARDS;
- 4338 Disaster policy;
- NATURAL HAZARDS;
- 4341 Early warning systems;
- NATURAL HAZARDS;
- 4343 Preparedness and planning;
- NATURAL HAZARDS