Sea-level scenarios for evaluating coastal impacts and adaptation responses
Abstract
Global-mean sea-level rise will drive impacts and adaptation needs around the world's coasts over the 21st century and beyond. Whilst there is a growing need from users to understand and quantify sea-level rise for this need, there is considerable confusion of how to best use the available information. An important element in assessing these issues is the development of scenarios (or plausible futures) of local relative sea-level rise to support impact assessment and adaptation planning. This requires combining a number of different but uncertain components of sea level which can be linked to climatic and non-climatic (i.e., uplift/subsidence of coastal land) components. A major concern remains about the possibility of significant contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Wave, tide and surge extremes are also considered. The paper provides guidance on sea-level rise scenarios, including the process of updates and incorporating new information as it emerges. It considers the needs to provide guidance on sea-level rise scenarios, including the process of updates and incorporating new information as this emerges, and how to apply this new approach. Furthermore, it highlights the importance of understanding the potential high-end sea-level response. The methods that are developed are pragmatic and consider the different needs of impact assessment, adaptation planning, and long-term decision making. A key aspect of scenario development is recognising the challenge that the regular release of new sea-level rise information from processes like the IPCC assessment reports presents to coastal adaptation planners. Such updates should be anticipated when creating scenarios, performing risk assessments and considering adaptation choices so that updated sea-level rise scenarios can build on existing information and can be quickly applied without the need for major revision.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMOS31D1777N
- Keywords:
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- 1641 Sea level change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 4217 Coastal processes;
- OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL;
- 4262 Ocean observing systems;
- OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL;
- 4556 Sea level: variations and mean;
- OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL