Integrated Multivariate Approach in Assessing Drought Risk in India

Droughts cause severe agrarian distress and impact the social and financial security of India, an emerging economy that has predominant workforce in agricultural sector. This has forced government to tackle droughts right from its roots with scientific mitigation in place. With this motivation, we developed the first country-wide fine-resolution drought risk map of India integrating both hazard and vulnerability factors. The drought hazard assessment was performed synthesizing severity and duration of historical drought events derived from a multivariate standardized drought index that uses information on deficit of both precipitation and soil moisture. The vulnerability maps, on the other hand, were developed by compounding numerous hydro-meteorological, physiographic and socio economic factors using the analytical hierarchical process. The integrated, multivariate approach in this study reveals high risk of drought in areas along the fertile Indo-Gangetic plains and part of peninsular India. Additionally, the analysis indicates that about 6.75 % of India is under critical drought zone category, of which Bihar has the highest percentage of area under critical category (66.67%) followed by Tamil Nadu (32.55%). The countrywide drought risk map developed in this study can aid in demarcating critically stressed regions, not only in terms of water availability, but also in terms of exposure and vulnerability of the communities and regions. It will also inform efficient drought mitigation strategies and optimal resource allocation