At What Point Managed Retreat?
Abstract
'Retreat' has a binary sound to it, like abandonment. 'Managed' suggests a degree of proactiveness and coordination. But these binaries hide a lot of nuance. The topic is not new. Indeed retreat is already happening. In some instances in incremental or unplanned ways. Retreat is part of a spectrum, along with, for example, protection, and accommodation. There are questions about gradual transitions from viability to non-viability of in situ adaptation, with key tipping points possibly having more to do with the role of institutions, communication, social networks, risk perception, and popular culture than the precision of any climate projections of future hazards.
Climate science tells us that retreat will be necessary in certain places and contexts. Sea level rise and coastal flooding will threaten hundreds of millions of people around the globe this century, and $ trillions in assets. Other threats include heavier rain events, more drought, lethal combinations of heat and humidity, and cascading impacts as extreme climate events lead to more conflict, food security issues, etc. But the center of mass on this topic is around vulnerability, impacts, and solutions. Social sciences, the arts, communication, environmental justice, decision-making, risk perception, vulnerability mapping, legal dimensions, financial markets, infrastructure, insurance, real estate. Vulnerability and resilience are essential to any conversation about managed retreat. Some communities are more vulnerable than others, due to economic and social factors, for example. And for political and other reasons, adaptive capacity differs. Macroeconomics in isolation might tell us 'high net worth homes should get sea walls, but not other homes'. This is one of many examples of how equity, fairness and environmental justice are central to deeper thinking about Managed Retreat. As one thinks about this complex topic one asks the most elemental of questions. Where from, and where to? Who? When? Who pays? Managed retreat cannot be disentangled from conversations about multi-generational commitment to people and the environment, including those who have not been responsible for many emissions of greenhouse gases. And as we think about managed retreat we need to think about associated greenhouse gas emissions.- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMIN44B..01H
- Keywords:
-
- 1641 Sea level change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1926 Geospatial;
- INFORMATICS;
- 4346 Emergency response and evacuations;
- NATURAL HAZARDS;
- 6309 Decision making under uncertainty;
- POLICY SCIENCES & PUBLIC ISSUES