Impact of Climate Change on Photovoltaic (PV) Power Output
Abstract
Photovoltaic (PV) power output depends on the downwelling solar irradiance (which is in turn strongly modulated by clouds), but it is also affected by the ambient temperature (as cool conditions improve the PV cell performance). Accordingly, the frequency of warm cloudy days determines the variability of the PV power outputs. Both are expected to be altered by climate change. Based on seven Global Climate Models, we have assessed the expected changes under the RCP4.5 scenario in the number of summer days of "very low" PV power outputs (according to the 10th percentile). We found that, due to changes in cloudiness and ambient temperature, summer days of "very low" PV power outputs are projected to be cut by half in southern Europe by midcentury, while they are expected to double in northeastern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Changes are somehow less noteworthy in other regions of significant solar potential.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMGC53I1201F
- Keywords:
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- 0360 Radiation: transmission and scattering;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE;
- 1610 Atmosphere;
- GLOBAL CHANGE