Accurate Modeling 2000 Years Of Global Warming and Projecting Renewables Mitigation: Is There Still Time?
Abstract
Global mean surface temperatures have been largely determined by atmospheric CO2 concentrations (but with random additional non-CO2 factors that include large volcanic eruptions that cool and El Nino oscillations that warm). Nonlinear regression fitting of a constant plus an exponential model to measured CO2 since zero AD (back 2000 years) not only accurately agrees with the relatively constant 279 +10 ppm values up until the Industrial Revolution (1760-1840). It also matches the exponential rise since then to 406 ppm by 2018. This is all with strong statistical significance (p<<0.001) and good correlation (R2=0.995). In addition linear regression showed that global warming tracked atmospheric CO2 concentration at a rate of 1oC rise per 100 +7 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 levels in a significant (p= 0.043) and correlated (R2=0.945) manner corresponding to a present 1.3 +0.3 oC of global warming above pre Industrial Revolution levels.
The 2017 world's total energy use per year was 19 TW-yr./yr. (1012 watts=TW). Worldwide installed 2018 renewable electric power capacities were 0.49 TW for solar cells and 0.56 TW for wind turbines, doubling rapidly every 2 years for solar cells and every 4 years for wind. The last were installed at lower unsubsidized cost than coal, natural gas, or nuclear. Should this continue, the equivalent of almost all the worlds energy use could be provided by solar cells and wind by 2043 +7 yrs. approaching a stable mean surface temperature rise of 1.9 +0.3 oC while fossil fuel use is displaced. This analysis includes capacity factor adjustments for when the sun does not shine and the wind does not blow, assuming demand response and energy storage support. Public policy is now the biggest factor determining when the displacement will occur. Tariffs currently limit US solar cell installations. Reaching a dangerous climate tipping point meanwhile could provide a severe to lethal blow to viable world civilization.- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMGC53I1199P
- Keywords:
-
- 0360 Radiation: transmission and scattering;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE;
- 1610 Atmosphere;
- GLOBAL CHANGE