High-frequency Forecasting of Solar Radiation using a Hybrid Numerical Weather Prediction and Stochastic Downscaling Model
Abstract
Forecasting of solar resource and power in high spatial and temporal resolutions has attracted the attention of electricity network operators and electricity generators because of its importance in the management of the electric grid, market operations, and reducing the cost of solar energy. Compared to time series analysis, stochastic models and machine learning techniques, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have unbeatable competitive advantages in day-ahead forecasting of solar radiation because it manipulates vast datasets from satellites, radiosondes and surface-based observing systems, and performs comprehensive computations based on fundamental physics and chemistry. NWP models are often limited in temporal resolution due to the large computational cost over a wide range of space-time scales and challenges in simulating multiple physical processes in small scales. This study introduces a hybrid model that combines NWP models and a stochastic downscaling technique to produce high temporal frequency forecasts of solar radiation, in hour-ahead and day-ahead time horizons. This hybrid model is evaluated using 2-year surface-based observations by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL). Based on several metrics of variability indices, our preliminary results appropriately capture the temporal variability of solar radiation and show comparable accuracy in high frequency forecast compared to linear interpolation of the NWP simulations.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMGC53F1184K
- Keywords:
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- 0305 Aerosols and particles;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE;
- 0345 Pollution: urban and regional;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE;
- 0360 Radiation: transmission and scattering;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE;
- 3307 Boundary layer processes;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3311 Clouds and aerosols;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3322 Land/atmosphere interactions;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3346 Planetary meteorology;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3355 Regional modeling;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3359 Radiative processes;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES