Integrated Human-Earth System Modeling: Extreme events, biogeophysical processes, and land use changes
Abstract
Land use changes are an essential element in the simulation of the integrated Human-Earth System, in particular related to re- and afforestation, as well as to bioenergy and agricultural production. However, state-of-the-art Integrated Assessment Models focus on associated direct effects on the carbon cycle, food and energy production, but neglect biogeophysical feedbacks and the role of extreme events in modulating these effects. These can be large, in particular for low-emissions scenarios (1,2,3). In addition also drought effects on plant growth and CO2 uptake appear underestimated in current models (4).
This presentation will outline a way forward for accelerating the development of Human-Earth System models that can integrate these feedbacks, using geographically explicit Earth System emulators (e.g. 5) that can be coupled to Integrated Assessment Models. References: 1) Seneviratne, S.I., R. Wartenburger, B.P. Guillod, A.L. Hirsch, M.M. Vogel, V. Brovkin, D.P. van Vuuren, N. Schaller, L. Boysen, K.V. Calvin, J. Doelman, P. Greve, P. Havlik, F. Humpenöder, T. Krisztin, D. Mitchell, A. Popp, K. Riahi, J. Rogelj, C.-F. Schleussner, J. Sillmann, E. Stehfest, 2018: Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 376 2) Seneviratne, S.I., et al. 2018: Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation. Nature Geoscience, 11, 88-96, doi:10.1038/s41561-017-0057-5 3) Hirsch, A.L., B.P. Guillod, S.I. Seneviratne, U. Beyerle, L.R. Boysen, V. Brovkin, E.L. Davin, J.C. Doelman, H. Kim, D.M. Mitchell, T. Nitta, H. Shiogama, S. Sparrow, E. Stehfest, D.P. van Vuuren, S. Wilson, 2018: Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land. Earth's Future, 6, 396-400 4) Humphrey, V., J. Zscheischler, P. Ciais, L. Gudmundsson, S. Sitch, S.I. Seneviratne, 2018: Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate to observed changes in terrestrial water storage. Nature, 560, 628-631 5) Beusch, L., L. Gudmundsson, and S.I. Seneviratne: Emulating Earth System Model temperatures: from global mean temperature trajectories to grid-point level realizations on land, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-34, in review.- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMGC51D..06S
- Keywords:
-
- 1622 Earth system modeling;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1990 Uncertainty;
- INFORMATICS;
- 3275 Uncertainty quantification;
- MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS