Atmospheric circulation characteristics associated with extreme high water level events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska
Abstract
The northern coast of Alaska is experiencing significant climatic change enhancing hazards from reduced sea ice and increased coastal erosion. This same region is home to substantial offshore oil/gas activities and future development plans need to account for the changing climate. High water levels specifically impact infrastructure through erosion and flooding hazards. In this study, 21 high water level events exceeding the top 95th percentile were identified at the gauge in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska over 1990-2018. All events were associated with strong westerly winds according to adjacent weather station records. The atmospheric circulation characteristics such as mean sea level pressure, 500hPa heights, temperature and winds along with storm tracks associated with these events are evaluated using ERA5 reanalysis data. The ultimate goal is to develop a set of circulation parameters/characteristics that can be used as analogs to determine the future frequency of high water extremes in Global Climate Model projections for 2005-2100 for Foggy Island Bay.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMGC43F1332B
- Keywords:
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- 1622 Earth system modeling;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1637 Regional climate change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 4313 Extreme events;
- NATURAL HAZARDS