Analysis of Crop Failure Temperature for Crops to Develop Adaptive Responses Using Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Responses (DPSIR) Framework in Florida

Environmental temperature extremes and thus the excess amount of heat units absorbed by plants is the primary factor that influences the plant growth and functions. In the present, climate scenario where temperature extremes are more frequent is affecting the plant yield and productivity. The objective of this study is to analyze two indicators i.e., Crop Failure Temperatures (CFTs) and Frost Indices (FIs) using Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) 21 models for historical (1950-2005) and climate future trend scenario (RCP 8.5) in Florida. CFTs are critical upper threshold temperature above which plant growth stops whereas FIs are the critical lower threshold below which plant growth stops. Climate variability with these indicators plays an important role in agriculture which leads to plant death. Frequency and intensity trends for CFTs is analyzed at six CFTs thresholds (T_max ≥30℃, 32℃, 34℃, 35℃, 39℃, and 40℃) and six FIs thresholds (T_min <= 5℃, -2℃, -1℃, 0℃, 2.2℃, 5.6℃). Our results show that there will be an increase in the intensity and frequency in CFTs by 2100 which can severely affect the production and quality of the crops. The extreme temperature of 39℃ shows the trend in which the frequency and intensity are increasing for historical scenario whereas at 40℃ the trends are showing increased frequency after the 2050s under RCP 8.5 scenario. Moreover, the intensity trends are increasing at 39°C and 40°C, but after the 2070s and 2080s. However, due to rise in minimum temperature change (3 to 4℃) from 1950 to 2100, the intensity and frequency trends for FIs are showing only at higher thresholds temperature (more than 0℃). Hence, conceptual framework i.e., Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Responses (DPSIR) framework is developed to draw the responses in the form of adaptation strategies. These strategies can also be used by different stakeholders and policymakers for further decision-making progress.