Nuclear Winter Theory - A History Review

The Rand Corporation first performed an environmental assessment of nuclear war in 1966. But this early study was classified and, therefore, not publicly discussed. In 1982, when the nuclear arms race between the US and Soviet Union was at its peak, a paper by Paul Krutzen and John Birks in Ambio ignited public interest in the environmental impact of a nuclear war. Shortly thereafter, the term "nuclear winter" was invented by a group of American scientists: Richard Turco, Brian Toon, Tom Ackerman, James Pollack, and Carl Sagan (TTAPS). Their ideas quickly crossed the Atlantic and were adopted in the Soviet Union. To study the problem, scientists across the globe used the best available mathematical models and computers, though they now look primitive. The nuclear winter studies conducted in the 1980s had a significant impact on the entire science of atmospheric aerosols. Many active participants in these studies later became global leaders in climate and aerosol research. This paper is a retrospective analysis of the nuclear winter theory, considering the development of the idea over the past decades and its further applications. Interestingly, most of the primary findings obtained in the 1980s remain valid and have been confirmed using the new sophisticated models and most powerful computers.