Understanding the Uncertainty in the 21st Century Dynamic Sea Level Projections: The Role of the AMOC
Abstract
IPCC AR5 climate models show that the largest uncertainties in the 21st century dynamic sea level (DSL) projections occur in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Based on IPCC AR5 projections, our intermodel singular value decomposition analysis suggests that the DSL uncertainties in these two oceans are both intrinsically connected to the uncertainty in the change of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Particularly, the AMOC slowdown in the 21st century not only accounts for the dipole pattern in the DSL change in the North Atlantic but also remotely induces a poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies that helps build a belted pattern of DSL change in the Southern Ocean. Our results indicate that reducing the intermodel spread in the change of the AMOC can greatly improve the consistency of DSL projection among models not only in individual basins but over the global ocean.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMGC11M1186L
- Keywords:
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- 0798 Modeling;
- CRYOSPHERE;
- 1621 Cryospheric change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1641 Sea level change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 6309 Decision making under uncertainty;
- POLICY SCIENCES & PUBLIC ISSUES