Relation between Lightning Activities Measured by the V-POTEKA Network and Intensity Development of 2018 Pacific Typhoons
Abstract
Lightning activity is a good proxy representing the precipitation and updraft intensities in thunderclouds. Recent studies suggest that the monitoring of the lightning activities enables us to easily predict the maximum wind speed and minimum sea-level pressure of the tropical cyclone by one or two days before, though the prediction error of typhoon intensities by the recent meteorological model is getting worse in the past 30 years. Many countries in the northwest Pacific region suffer from the attack of tropical cyclone (typhoon) and have a strong demand to predict the intensity development of typhoons by means of a cost-effective way. Thus, we have developed a new automatic lightning observation system (V-POTEKA) and installed this system in the Philippines, Guam, Palau, Jakarta, Okinawa, and Sapporo since September 2017. Using the V-POTEKA data, lightning locations are estimated by using the time-of-arrival geolocation software. We have compared the relation between the lightning activities measured by the V-POTEKA network and the intensity variation of the 2018 Pacific typhoons. In 2018, a total of 29 typhoons occurred. We selected 11 of 29 typhoon events and conducted cross-correlation analysis between lightning activities and typhoon intensities. We confirmed that the time variations of the detected lightning event numbers and typhoon intensities (maximum wind speed and center pressure) are correlated. Especially, there is clear time lag (~1.5 days) between lightning activities and typhoon intensities in category 1-3 typhoons, that is, the peak of lightning activity comes first, and then the peak of the typhoon intensity comes next. However, as for the super typhoons (category 5 typhoons), this relation is not always clear. We will show the detailed results derived from this cross-correlation analysis at the presentation.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMAE11A3194S
- Keywords:
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- 3304 Atmospheric electricity;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3314 Convective processes;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3324 Lightning;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3329 Mesoscale meteorology;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES