Computer Simulation of Explosive Eruption Scenarios at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (FR): Implications for Volcanic Hazard Assessment.
Abstract
We have used three-dimensional, non-equilibrium multiphase flow numerical models to simulate phreatic explosion and sub-Plinian eruption scenarios at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles, France). Initial and boundary conditions for computer simulations have been set on the basis of independent estimates of eruption source parameters from past events. In particular, the 1530 AD sub-Plinian eruption and some of the phreatic phases of the 1976 volcanic crisis at La Soufrière have been taken as reference scenarios in this analysis. A parametric study on eruption source parameters allowed us to quantify their influence on the simulated dynamics. Numerical results also enabled us to estimate the impact of specific eruptive scenarios on the inhabited region around the volcano and, in particular, the areas invaded by pyroclastic currents, their associated temperatures and dynamic pressures. However, the study raises some fundamental questions about the use of deterministic scenario simulations for hazard assessment, with probability distributions and uncertainties still difficult to estimate. Use of High-Performance Computing techniques and supercomputers will in part allow us to overcome such difficulties, by making it possible to perform ensembles of 3D simulations, but the problem remains open in a scientific context where validation of numerical models is a necessarily incomplete process. Such considerations are of particular importance in the context of unrest recorded at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe that has increased since April 2018, with the consequent need of assessing the hazard and mitigating the risk associated with a possible, future reawakening of the volcano.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFM.V23G0288E
- Keywords:
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- 4314 Mathematical and computer modeling;
- NATURAL HAZARDS;
- 8414 Eruption mechanisms and flow emplacement;
- VOLCANOLOGY;
- 8428 Explosive volcanism;
- VOLCANOLOGY;
- 8445 Experimental volcanism;
- VOLCANOLOGY