Model-Based Parametric Analysis of Total Water Prediction in Coastal Transition Zones of the US East and Gulf Coasts
Abstract
The vulnerability of coastal transition zones to extreme weather events and flood inundation motivates the existence of an operational total water prediction modeling solution in these zones. Coastal transition zones are defined in this study as the region between the coast and upland reaches where tides have no more influence in water level variation. Numerical modeling of dynamics of such zones can be complex and resource-intensive due to the compound effect of inland and coastal processes. As a result, employing such models in operational settings is a challenging task. To provide insights for tackling the issues associated with the coupling of coastal-inland models, this study focuses on investigating coastal transition zones by applying idealized domains. This approach facilitates in-depth analysis of the relevant contributing phenomena through performing many simulations with different model input parameters and investigating output variability. For this purpose, three classes of idealized domains are generated based on an assessment of the sizes and shapes of the estuaries with socioeconomic importance along the US East and Gulf Coasts. These classes include a direct river-to-coast connection, a triangular-shaped bay, and a trapezoidal-shaped bay. Physical input parameter variations include river discharge, bed roughness, and tidal range. The extent of coastal influence in the domain is computed based on the reach of tidal signal propagation. Results demonstrate the damping effect of a bay on propagation of the tidal signals through the upland. In general, the presence of estuaries in the domain decreases the sensitivity of the model to input parameters. Moreover, a non-linear relationship with variation in the bed roughness and tidal signal is evident. The results quantify sensitivities of model outputs to the studied input parameters and provide insights into the dominant processes in the coastal transition zones. These findings can be used as a guideline for increasing computational efficiency of coupled coastal-inland modeling by focusing on the most influential parameters and have a priori estimation of their contribution to the output variability.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFM.H52D..08C
- Keywords:
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- 1816 Estimation and forecasting;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1839 Hydrologic scaling;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1843 Land/atmosphere interactions;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1847 Modeling;
- HYDROLOGY