Impact of Climate Change in Himalayan River Hydrology in Nepal
Abstract
This study highlights the impacts of climate change (CC) on hydrological regime of the Himalayan Rivers, focusing on Budhigandaki River Basin of Nepal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Glacio-hydrological Degree Day Model (GDM) were used to simulate the historical and future water balance of the basin. Hydro-climatic data of the Budhigandaki basin for a period of 35 years (1981-2015) were used to calibrate and validate the models. Future projection data from Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) were used for generating future climate data which was downscaled using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 representing average and high radiative forcing scenarios. Analysis of future CC were carried out for three time windows, namely, near-future (2011-2040), mid-future (2041-2070) and far-future (2071-2100). The simulation result shows that the increase in temperature and precipitation with change in precipitation pattern in Budhigandaki River basin. The projected change in precipitation would affect the water balance of the basin including snow and glacier melts, surface runoff, base flow and evapotranspiration. The impact is more pronounced in the upper part of the basin since that part has significant snow and glacier covered area. Both RCP scenarios show increasing river flow in future however the far future projection shows almost double than the historical average flow of the Budhigandaki River.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFM.H51B..08M
- Keywords:
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- 3305 Climate change and variability;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 1655 Water cycles;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1878 Water/energy interactions;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1880 Water management;
- HYDROLOGY