Statistical forecasts of Ethiopia's Kiremt rainy season for rainfed agricultural planning

The Kiremt rainy season is a major driver of agricultural and economic development in Ethiopia, dictating the livelihoods of millions of farmers throughout the country. Nearly three quarters of Ethiopia's workforce is employed in agriculture—primarily rainfed—making robust predictions of Kiremt precipitation timing and intensity potentially highly valuable. Relatively little work, however, has been devoted to predicting the timing of the season's onset, despite its importance for determining sowing time and crop rotation. To explore the utility of advance knowledge of Kiremt season characteristics, statistical forecasts are generated based on three definitions of onset, at various lead times, using both regression and machine learning techniques. Crop yields are subsequently simulated conditioned on forecast information, with initial results indicating that cereal yields are sensitive to planting date and that integration of forecast information can provide value in agricultural planning, warranting further study.