Generating Intuition and Hypotheses with a Simplified, Watershed-Scale Phosphorus Model
Abstract
Various empirical models, molecular to laboratory-scale physical models, and complex watershed-scale models have drastically improved understanding of phosphorus dynamics in the last several decades. Nonetheless, knowledge gaps persist and the puzzle of phosphorus management has yet to be solved. To complement the above approaches and help close the gaps, we provide a simple, physically-reasoned, watershed-scale model for phosphorus and early results of analysis employing the model. The aforementioned characteristics of the model presented are particularly advantageous for developing intuition and generating hypotheses at a spatial scale suited for informing policy-makers. The mathematical formulation of the model is built upon mechanistic understanding and a set of simplifying assumptions, which themselves represent hypotheses about which processes are most important at the watershed-scale. Furthermore, levers have been embedded within the model with an aim to understand how different types of technology or policy interventions (those which decrease phosphorus inputs, increase its retention at various points along the path to the watershed outlet, or improve its recovery and reuse) interact and change outcomes for the watershed. One intended end-use of the model is iterative hypothesis generation and testing in tandem with field observations or a more complex model integrating technology, economics, and the environment.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFM.H33J2058W
- Keywords:
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- 1803 Anthropogenic effects;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1831 Groundwater quality;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1834 Human impacts;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1871 Surface water quality;
- HYDROLOGY