Cascading Effect of ENSO on the Mekong's Water-Energy Infrastructures: Implications for Water Management
Abstract
Energy systems comprise multiple generators and high-voltage transmission networks that connect the power-generating units to sub-stations and end-users. Ideally, all these components should be robust against the hydro-climatic conditions; yet, research on the water-energy nexus shows that prolonged droughts can largely affect the output of hydro- and thermo-power plants. A better understanding of the relationship between power system performance and the main drivers of hydro-climatic variability is therefore important to inform the design and operation of these infrastructures. In this work, we study such relationship for the main water-energy infrastructures operated in the Mekong River basin, a region exposed to prolonged dry spells caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). More specifically, we carry out a statistical analysis that unveils the correlation between ENSO indices and multiple indicators of power system performance—e.g., amount of unused hydropower, grid stress, and CO2 emissions. The latter are produced via simulation with a spatially-distributed water-energy model. Results show that the negative impact of ENSO, albeit dampened, is detected on all indicators, suggesting that some key infrastructures (e.g., hydropower reservoirs) have a limited buffering capacity. This issue can be limited by resorting to two complementary water management solutions, namely the coordinated operation of water storing facilities and the use of reservoir operating policies conditioned on the state of the climate.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFM.H13S2033G
- Keywords:
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- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1812 Drought;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1821 Floods;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1880 Water management;
- HYDROLOGY