Progress on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting and Applications: Opportunities and Challenges
Abstract
Hydrometeorological forecasting has been an active field of research from the 1970s when the US National Weather Service issued Extended Streamflow Prediction that used climatological precipitation and temperature to develop streamflow forecasts. Since then, efforts to reduce the uncertainty in streamflow prediction have been supported ably with increased skill in meteorological forecasts arising from operational data assimilation schemes and also from improvements in computational infrastructure and from process representation in hydrological models. Further, the need for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) streamflow forecast for water management increased with limited potential for building new reservoirs, thereby necessitating better operation of existing systems. In this talk, we present recent advances in S2S ensemble forecasting and their relevance to applications over multiple time scales. We will also cover the state of the art on hydrologic predictability research, advances in uncertainty reduction methods, and applications of probabilistic S2S forecasts for risk-based decision analyses to support optimal resources and emergency management. The review will also discuss opportunities and challenges in improving forecasting skill that includes utilizing observed streamflow records for data assimilation and by considering multiple climate models and hydrologic models. Potential for application of S2S forecasting beyond streamflow forecast will also be discussed emphasizing the utility of forecasts for supporting the operation and management of critical infrastructure.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFM.H11J1638A
- Keywords:
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- 1899 General or miscellaneous;
- HYDROLOGY